Expected Returns Issues
Our Mid-Year Review includes a look at year-to-date demonstration portfolio performance including an update of the Manifest 40 Most Widely Followed Stocks and a fresh look at Rhino Ratings.
We continue our Successful Investing series on April 10-11 and visit some local clubs and chapters this month. The Round Table has returned to a 16-17% rate of return since inception (2010). Tin Cup makes a new all-time high. This month features a look at performance, the fundamental data updates continue ... and we concentrate on building the Buttonwood portfolio during Bull Sessions.
With the market hovering just above 10,000 on the Value Line Arithmetic Average, many stocks are near all-time highs and most would be considered "fairly valued." That's code for "capable of generating a 10% return." This Week, we celebrate the long term success of our Round Table (17.6% since 2010) with our Annual Golden Knights aware session of the Round Table.
It's the magical time of the year, Groundhog Day, as we celebrate the moment, and fervently make our stock selections for the next Groundhog Challenge. We celebrate the current champions, Ann Renli (Individual), Orange County California Model Club (Group) and John Kimmel/Brookfield Digest (Institutional). Ann Renli helped with a return to Groundhog Glory by delivering a 1-year total return of 78.7%.
Seasonally Speaking, October is time to buy stocks, especially late October & particularly tech stocks & small caps. October can evoke fear on Wall Street. Memories are stirred of crashes & massacres. -- Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader)
September and October are notoriously turbulent and challenging. The gains of July and August are likely to be tested. The pundits will again assail the track record of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway only to discover -- if they're fair and paying attention -- that IT'S STILL WORKING. In our community, weakness in September & October is welcomed as an accumulation opportunity.
We celebrate one of the better January stock markets in recent years and glance in the direction of Groundhog Day -- our annual celebration of community-based investing at Manifest Investing. For 19 years ... and 16 years of Groundhog Challenge, the stock selection has been formidable. This year's celebrity hog will be David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital) and the individual championship likely comes down to Lisa Robertson and Kurt Kowitz for the win. The group entry is a photo finish between Montgomery County (Maryland), LA/MS (New Orleans), North Texas (Dallas) and defending co-Champion Space Coast (Florida).
This month, as we update the most widely followed stocks, we're reminded of strength in numbers and how often our community of investors experiences long term success. Ken Kavula spends a few moments with keeping score and our target of beating the market.
We want to focus on what matters ... and continuously become a better long-term investing resource for you. This month we revisit what's important and offer some glimpses of some work in progress.
This month we are reminded to focus on growth, profitability and valuation ... and that it's easier (and more fun) with friends. Our investing community is a source of ideas and support for the marathon.
What can we learn from successful long-term investors? This month we take a look at a screening technique for non-core opportunities inspired by our repeat Groundhog Champions.
This month we take a look back at a Lost Decade and a prescient forecast by Ralph Acampora made back in October 2001.