February Is For Lovers, Football Fans and Successful Investors

Cover Story, by Mark Robertson, Managing Partner February 9th, 2025

Super Bowl Sunday ... and Valentine's Day. Our "Super Bowl" was last week as we wrapped another Groundhog Challenge. This week features Buttonwood during Bull Sessions on Tuesday and Valentine's Day as another busy week of earnings reports wraps up. FactSet (FDS), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH),FedEx (FDX), Starbucks (SBUX), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Chipotle (CMG) ...

Back To The Super Bowl And All Things Commercial

What have been your favorites over the years? The Coca-Cola ad ranks as one of the best of all time. The Apple commercial is epic. And Budweiser consistently hits it out of the park with the gorgeous Clydesdales. But the E*Trade babies and the CareerBuilder Monkeys are legendary.

But — to us (particularly in Michigan) — the Eminem commercial by Chrysler stands out among the best. Ever.

This Week at MANIFEST (2/10/2025)

If you’d like to drop by on Saturday morning for some virtual orange juice or to chat over your favorite flavor of java — we’ll be in the conference room from 10 AM – 12 PM ET this weekend. https://meet.goto.com/manifestinvest/dawn

  • Super Bowl Sunday The top five pizza sale days are: Super Bowl Sunday, New Year’s Eve, Halloween, the night before Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day.
  • Tipping our hats to this year’s Groundhog Challenge Champions but Looking Forward. Join us for Bull Sessions, Tuesday (2 PM ET) as we review the entries for Groundhog Challenge XIX (2025).
  • The update batch includes 121 stocks from Value Line’s Standard Edition Issue 2. The group includes restaurants. Let’s do that long awaited industry study. Is Brinker (EAT) really coiled up and ready to Laissez Les Bon Temps Rouler?

We Miss You, Lou. (A Perplexity AI Demo)

Good evening, and welcome to Wall Street Week. I’m Louis Rukeyser, here to guide you through the financial labyrinth where bulls and bears are engaged in a constant tug-of-war, and where the only certainty is uncertainty itself. This week, Wall Street took a tumble as inflation fears and tariff worries sent investors scurrying for cover.

The S&P 500 shed 0.9%, erasing its modest gains for the week and delivering one of its worst performances of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average wasn’t far behind, sinking 1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq bore the brunt of the selloff, plummeting 1.4%.

What’s got the market’s knickers in a twist, you ask? Well, it seems our dear consumers are bracing for a bout of inflation that could make their wallets feel lighter than a feather in a hurricane. The University of Michigan’s preliminary report shows inflation expectations for the year ahead have soared to 4.3%, a level we haven’t seen since the bygone days of 2023. This unexpected surge has sent Treasury yields climbing faster than a squirrel up a tree with a dog in hot pursuit.

Adding fuel to the fire, President Trump has hinted at “reciprocal tariffs” that could hit American pocketbooks harder than a heavyweight champion’s right hook. The market, always quick to react to potential threats, responded with all the grace of an elephant on roller skates.

But let’s not lose our heads just yet. The job market, that perennial beacon of economic health, has shown some encouraging signs. While hiring may have slowed to a leisurely stroll compared to December’s sprint, workers are seeing fatter paychecks than economists expected. It’s a mixed bag that’s left the Federal Reserve scratching its collective head, wondering whether to cut interest rates or stand pat. As we navigate these choppy waters, remember that in the grand tapestry of investing, it’s not the daily threads that matter, but the overall pattern. So keep your wits about you, your portfolio diversified, and your sense of humor intact. After all, in the world of finance, if you’re not laughing, you might just be crying. That’s all for this week.

Remember, no matter how fancy the footwork, those who dance to the tune of Wall Street must still pay the fiddler. Good night, and good investing.

Manifest Investing Median Projected Annual Return (MIPAR) Forecast. The long-term projection is 9.2%. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009. The average MIPAR since 2004 is 7.5%.

The Value Line Median Appreciation Potential (VLMAP) remained at 9.7%. (45% over next 3-5 years)

Bull Sessions

Tuesdays Bull Session (2 PM) — Registration: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1423002687424550999 — will review the consensus selection favorites from this year’s Groundhog XIX Challenge. We’ll also take a quick look at a Restaurants industry study and most likely rake Gentex (GNTX) over the coals during our monthly portfolio review of the Buttonwood Bulls demonstration.

Join us Tuesdays at 2 PM ET during 2025 as we resume “normal” topics, exploring some of the issues and opportunities on the minds of our community of investors.

https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/buttonwood

Recent Stock Study “Audits” & Companies Added/Restored
  • Brinker (EAT) (Seeking Alpha Top 10 For 2025)
  • Nike (NKE) (2048)
  • YETI (YETI) (Best Small Companies 2025)

MANIFEST 40 Updates

Round Table Stocks

Useful Links: Results, Remarks & References

SUBSCRIBE to our Manifest Investing YouTube Channel (IT’S FREE) if you’d like to be notified when content is added to the collection.

Mark Robertson

Mark Robertson is founder and managing partner of Manifest Investing, a source for research and portfolio management focusing on strategic long term investors.

Expected Returns, Feb 2025
  • February Is For Lovers, Football Fans and Successful Investors
FactSet Research (FDS)
Quality 88
PAR 8.6%
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
Quality 87
PAR 12.3%
FedEx Corp (FDX)
Quality 75
PAR 10.3%
Starbucks (SBUX)
Quality 72
PAR 8.0%
Southwest Airlines (LUV)
Quality 28
PAR 8.8%
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Quality 97
PAR 9.9%
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