We Hope You Dance

Cover Story, by Mark Robertson, Managing Partner January 1st, 2015

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We close our first ten years at Manifest Investing with a celebration of the dance.

This community recognizes the nature of cycles and the long-term trend when it comes to truly owning our share of America (and the World) with prudent stewardship. Enable innovation and participate in rewards. These are among the most important lessons of long-term investing. Over the next days and weeks, we’ll rekindle some of the best starting here with a refresher on one Charles “Dancing Bear” Allmon, a quick reminder about dance cards and we’ll close with a wish and prayer inspired by Lee Ann Womack. You’re invited to share your favorite moments and lessons now and all next month.

My responsibilities at Better Investing included the opportunity and privilege to correspond and spend time with some of the most exceptional investors in stock market history. From Peter Lynch to John Bogle and the likes of John Neff, the moments were treasured and the mission was a continuous focus/emphasis on deriving lessons that could be applied to our long-term perspective. The objective is simple. Discover wisdom and lean on experience in an effort to maximize the relative returns of everybody all around us.

Current day favorites include many of you, Jeremy Grantham, Brad Perry and until a few days ago … one of the denizens of Graham-and-Doddsville, Walter Schloss. [We have celebrated Mr. Schloss on a number of occasions here.] Another long-time is a favorite for many of you, Charles Allmon of Growth Stock Outlook legend and one of the best stock pickers that any of us could (or will) ever meet. We dubbed Chuck Allmon one of our favorite dancing bears — because the financial media often referred to him as a “permabear.”

We ran across this excerpt (a post on our Forum by Dan Hess) from November 2008 that honored Mr. Allmon’s lifetime achievements but also shared (12) stocks with the market clearly clenched in the teeth of a formidable — and very real bear — at the time. In Dan’s words at the time:

Many will recall Charles Allmon as a contributor to Better Investing for many years and also being a newsletter watched closely by the astute investor Joe Smith. After [a mere] 44 years of issuing the newsletter he will give this up in December. But being only 87 he is not retiring but taking on a new career in a venture capital start up.

You can read the Forbes Article at How To Pick A Growth Stock

The article shows 12 stocks Allmon is highlighting in his most recent GSO newsletter. I note that Stryker (SYK) and FactSet (FDS) recently discussed here are on his list as well as a half dozen of stocks with green PARS.

Although Allmon has been a bear for many years it is interesting to see he expects P/E Ratios to fall further back toward the levels in the early 1970’s bear market.

It is sad to see Charles Allmon give up his newsletter but at 87 he plans to continue to his managed funds and start a new career but first he is going to take a well earned vacation at his Hawaii home.

Fast Forward 6.3 Years …

The Dancing Bear (Charles Allmon) achieved a relative return of +4.7% with this group of (12) favorites from November 2008 — some 6.3 years ago. The collective return is 20.1% (yes, annualized) and 7-of-12 have outperformed the Wilshire 5000.

Dance, Mr. Allmon, dance. Thanks, Dan Hess!

Your Personal Dance Punch Card

Our never-ending mission at Manifest Investing is to provide a steady stream of actionable ideas with considerable long-term potential. Are all of the ideas winners? Of course not. In our November 2011 newsletter, we talked about dance cards, selectivity and vigilance as we reinforced our weekly series of checking in on the most promising (and in some cases, most vulnerable) update stocks.

The investing philosophy of Graham/Buffett was that your lifetime investment activity be limited to twenty investment decisions. Ownership should take precedence over trading, and intelligent investing (thinking) should supersede emotional investing (acting.) In other words, Ben and Warren (since we’re on a first names basis now) believed that long-term investors should be issued a “dance card” with 20-or-so instances of really good ideas during a lifetime of investing.

I’ve had a few of these over the last twenty years and there were times when I listened and times when I should have listened. And since the delightful audiences in Tucson, Dallas and Seattle have asked, I’ll name names. One such opportunity came right out of the New England fog a little more than ten years ago on a rainy night, trench coats and all, like a scene out of a Bogart movie. A good friend shuffled up and whispered, “Psst. FDS. Fact Set. Check it out.” Rich Beaubien is smart, reliable and I did. We smiled with legions of FDS shareholders for years.

FactSet Research ranks as one of the most rewarding stocks over the years in the MANIFEST 40. We are not alone.

Hope and Dance

[Reprised from a Better Investing column … a few years ago]

Tools. Resources. We regularly present features that point strategic long term investors in the direction of tools and guides that support our efforts. As our 10-year anniversary, we are grateful for the unflinching and ever-building contributions made by community participants. Collectively, we explore implementation of some time-honored principles.

“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn.” – Alvin Toffler.

Building a successful, thriving online community is a challenge. It’s about getting involved. It’s about engendering commitment from a diverse population of community members. Successful communities generally exhibit some combination of utility, entertainment and/or passion. We, the people, make all the difference.

“Never regard study as a duty, but as the enviable opportunity to learn to know the liberating influence of beauty in the realm of the spirit for your own personal joy – and to the profit of the community to which your work belongs.” — Albert Einstein.

Lee Ann Womack won the 2000 Country Music Song of the Year for “I Hope You Dance.”

I hope you never lose your sense of wonder.
You get your fill to eat but always keep that hunger.
May you never take one single breath for granted,
and God forbid, love ever leave you empty handed.
I hope you still feel small
when you stand beside the ocean.
Whenever one door closes, I hope one more opens.
Promise me that you’ll give faith a fighting chance,
And if you get the chance to sit it out or dance.
I hope you dance. I hope we dance.

In the words of Henry David Thoreau, “Men have become the tools of their tools.” Our communities become tools unto themselves, taking on lives of their own. Get your feet wet. Share with someone.

I think Lee Ann’s lyrics capture the spirit of our long-term investors, volunteers and educators. You can do this. We will show you how. Learn, unlearn and relearn. We hope you dance. I hope we dance.