The View From Hugh

Stock Screen, by Mark Robertson, Managing Partner December 1st, 2016

This month’s Sweet 16 is a StockSearch result from Manifest Investing based on Hugh McManus’ criteria.

Market Expectations (11/30/2016). The median projected annual return (MIPAR) for all 2400+ stocks followed by MANIFEST (Solomon database) is 5.0%. The multi-decade range for this indicator is estimated at 2-20% with an average of 7.8%.

When Hugh McManus participates in our monthly Round Table webcasts, he often shares that he likes to shop among a collection of “extremely vetted” companies and he monitors them for opportunities to accumulate shares when they are close to 52 week lows. When the prices sag while still featuring a solid long term outlook and opportunity, he routinely adds to his positions.

Companies of Interest

All of the companies shown here are within 10% of their 52 week low while at the same time exhibiting excellent quality (>90) with a return forecast in the “sweet spot” (PAR from 10-15%).

This month’s Sweet 16 is a StockSearch result from Manifest Investing based on Hugh’s criteria. The results are sorted by proximity to 52 week low (Vs 52 Wk Low) ascending. Hugh likes healthcare companies but no effort was made to feature companies from this sector. They’re appearing as they often do every time an election is held in the United States.

Novartis (NVS) features a 10-11% return forecast, a quality ranking of 83 and is 2.5% from its 52 week low. The Value Line low total return forecast is 10%. Top line growth has matured but potential profitability enhancements, from 14% to 25% projected net margin, could be compelling. The 3% dividend yield provides some cushion.

Silicon Motion Tech (SIMO) is a company that was added among this years Best Small Companies.

Roche (RHHBY) was a January 2011 Round Table selection that has delivered an annualized excess return of +0.9% despite a 2-year long price swoon.

Sweet 16: Screening Results (11/30/2016). Growth: Long term revenue growth forecast. Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. Vs 52 Wk Low: Current price vs. 52 Week Low. Source: Manifest Investing StockSearch Feature.

Mark Robertson

Mark Robertson is founder and managing partner of Manifest Investing, a source for research and portfolio management focusing on strategic long term investors.