Funds & Featured Portfolios, by Mark Robertson, Managing Partner
Posted on February 1st, 2016
This month’s tracking portfolio, our Weekend Warriors, monitors the progress made by our weekly stock study nudges known as the Fave Five.
This month’s tracking portfolio, our Weekend Warriors, monitors the progress made by our weekly stock study nudges known as the Fave Five. We place $100 into each new idea and track the progress of that $100 investment over time.
Since inception a few months ago, the annualized total return of the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio has outperformed matching investments in the Wilshire 5000 (VTSMX) by +3.5%.
62.2% of all stocks featured have beaten the market.
The top performing stock so far is Spirit Airlines (SAVE) with a 31.9% total return during a period when to stock market has declined -7.9%.
Stocks are chosen based on a simple premise. (1) We seek high-quality companies with superior long term return forecasts. All stocks at the top of the screening results have high MANIFEST ranks — our combination of return forecast and quality. (2) We then filter by strongest 1-year total return forecasts based on the analyst consensus. Although we expect this to be turbulent and less dependable than our 5-year time horizons, a solid 1-year outlook all other things “equal” just might have some sentiment or momentum-based upside. We’ll be watching this aspect carefully going forward. How much influence does the analyst consensus have for 1-year performance? How much more significant are the likes of Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and firms like JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley?
The accompanying portfolio is sorted by value (descending). Study candidates can be considered by sorting by return forecast (PAR) via the public dashboard.
The selling discipline is simple. (1) PAR < MIPAR. (2) Relative return <= -20%. “Reset” We hope the Fave Five provides a steady diet of actionable study ideas and look forward to gauging results going forward.