The Best Is Yet To Come (Alerts!)
Cover Story, by Mark Robertson, Managing Partner August 1st, 2015
After a couple of challenging months on the personal side, we’ll return to our series of educational features that will probably provide yet another bolstering feature in support of our long-term investing efforts.
The Power of Alerts. This simple, but potentially powerful incremental feature is new at Manifest Investing. From the perspective of things that help us to meet the challenge of positive relative returns, this may prove to be one of the best things we’ve ever done. Grab a list of your favorite stocks and set some alerts to nudge you for buying/selling opportunities and improvements/degradation in characteristics like quality, growth or financial strength.
Our visits with investors and investment clubs are always uplifting and informative. Following a couple of recent sessions, I was reminded how powerful our philosophy and methods can be. I was also reminded (and humbled) about how “deep” our process and efforts are. After a couple of challenging months on the personal side, we’ll return to our series of educational features that will probably provide yet another bolstering feature in support of our long-term investing efforts. To the clubs that provided feedback, guidance and support, Thank You. We’ll get back to school with an assessment and implementation of a crucial feature, alerts and strengthened vigilance.
“Opportunities present themselves every day – to everyone. You just have to be alert and ready to act.” — Marc Ostrofsky
We’re all busy people. If you’re “here” chances are that you’re way more busier than others. This can be notoriously true if you’re retired. I can remember the days when my parents retired and I assumed that I’d be able to call them and successfully connect more often. Wrong. They had both discovered a number of activities that made them even more difficult to track down or talk on the phone.
“Mom and Dad, where have you been?” “Now you see what it feels like, son.”
Nudges On Demand
Novo Nordisk (NVO) has been very high on my pounce pile for years. I believe I first became aware of the diabetes solutions company years ago thanks to Charles Carlson and his Dow Theory Newsletter. Excellent company. Simply put, this is a core company that I’ve wanted to own — when it makes sense to do so. That day came back in late 2014 or early 2015. The moment passed without any action from me. That WILL NOT happen again.
Novo Nordisk (NVO). The company is a world leader in diabetes solutions and has long been on my radar screen, a candidate for a core holding in personal portfolios. And back around Groundhog Day 2015, the stock price swooned to $41. Opportunity knocked.
If only somebody would have tapped me on the shoulder at the time…
Cue Manifest Investing
It turns out that our technical manager, Kurt Kowitz, has decided that he’s willing to tap shoulders. Alerts have been implemented on the company equity analysis pages and subscribers are invited (and encouraged) to grab their list of favorite stocks. Enter alerts at will. Aim. Fire.
You can set the alarm based on the Sweet Spot — a condition that has the advantage of being variable. It will rise and fall with the market tides.
In the case of Novo Nordisk as shown here, the chronicle displays the reality that the sweet spot is rarely visited — although the two spikes in projected relative return were clearly times when a nudge was in order. In the case of some high-quality stocks, the alert setting can probably be made on the absolute return forecast. As shown in the accompanying figure, I’ve set my alert for Novo Nordisk at 12%. I will receive an email when that opportunity materializes in the future.
Novo Nordisk (NVO): Chronicle. Back around Groundhog Day 2015, NVO approached a stock price of $41 and the return forecast (projected annual return) probably spiked above 12%. As shown, going back over the years, (1) the return forecast range is relatively narrow and (2) the return forecast at the time was a multi-year high.
How To Set An Alert On A Stock. From the Equity Analysis company summary page, click on “Add Alert” and a menu of selections appears. You can set an alarm based on the Sweet Spot or a number of conditions, including Projected Annual Return (PAR).
Subscribers can also enter limits to flag declining quality rankings and a variety of other features. As a shareholder or stockwatcher, it may be prudent to be alerted to a decline in financial strength or growth forecast or …
Please consider this a work in progress. You will not be inundated with emails as a toggle feature has been built in. Investors have to “clear” an alert in order to reactivate the condition. We will learn and develop this feature going forward.
Small Differences, Huge Advantage
We’ve celebrated a number of material differences available from our philosophy and methods during our first ten years. Included among those advantages are things like a prudent and appropriate level of interest in promising faster growing companies. We’ve also explored how small differences manifest in building a long-term positive relative return.
I have a feeling that the alert feature might be one of the most powerful advantages we’ve built. Ever. And as usual, Kurt has kept it simple.
We love our sessions with busy people who gather in groups known as investment clubs. As we finished walking through a number of features and demonstrating a number of things that we do and make available, I was struck by a lady who shared, “I’m not sure you comprehend how powerful and difference making the tools you’re building can be. And after experiencing the depth and consideration that goes on behind the scenes at Manifest Investing, I’m staggered.”
I like that feeling. We’re staggered and humbled too — and looking forward to yet another incremental advantage.
Mark Robertson
Mark Robertson is founder and managing partner of Manifest Investing, a source for research and portfolio management focusing on strategic long term investors.