# Hormel: a core-holding profile priced near its 52-week low

Hormel (HRL), In the Sweet Spot pick for October 29, 2026: Hormel sits in the sweet spot with a 15.0% PAR, a core score of 264 out of 300, and a price just 8...

Canonical: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/sweet-spot/hrl-hormel-2026-10-29

In the Sweet Spot · October 29, 2026 · Hormel (HRL) · Staples

**Hormel sits in the sweet spot with a 15.0% PAR, a core score of 264 out of 300, and a price just 8.7% above its 52-week low, ahead of its December 3 report.**

Hormel (HRL) was Manifest Investing's In the Sweet Spot daily stock pick for October 29, 2026. At the time of the pick, Hormel carried a quality percentile of 83 and a projected annual return (PAR) of 15.0% against a MIPAR of 9.6%, placing it inside the sweet spot of 14.6% to 19.6%.

## Key metrics at the time of the pick

- **Quality percentile**: 83
- **Projected annual return (PAR)**: 15.0%
- **MIPAR (median PAR of coverage)**: 9.6%
- **PROVE**: 12.7%
- **Core score (of 300)**: 264
- **Financial strength (of 100)**: 94
- **EPS stability (of 100)**: 86.4
- **Sales growth forecast**: 2.3%
- **P/E ratio**: 18.9
- **Price at pick**: $20.61
- **52-week low**: $18.96
- **52-week high**: $26.60
- **Above 52-week low**: 8.7%
- **Below 52-week high**: 22.5%
- **Dividend yield**: 6.1%
- **Projected yield**: 2.4%
- **In the sweet spot**: Yes
- **Triple play**: No

Hormel (HRL) is the kind of company we like to study when the market has soured on a steady business. It is a packaged foods name in the Staples sector, and today it sits **inside the sweet spot**: a PAR of 15.0% against a band of 14.6% to 19.6% (MIPAR of 9.6%, plus 5 to 10 percentage points). PAR is our projected annual return over five years, built from the growth forecast, projected profitability and the valuation we expect the market to assign. It rises when price falls and fundamentals hold. Hormel is only 8.7% above its 52-week low of $18.96 and 22.5% below its 52-week high of $26.60, at a recent price of $20.61. That is the main reason PAR has risen to this level.

**The Manifest lens**

- **Quality of 83.3** (a percentile from 0 to 100, where above 80 is excellent). Quality combines financial strength, EPS stability, relative sales growth and relative profitability.
- **Financial strength of 93.9 out of 100** and **EPS stability of 86.4 out of 100**. EPS stability measures how smooth earnings growth has been. These two are the reason Hormel’s **core score is 264 out of 300**. Core score is the sum of quality, financial strength and EPS stability, and 225 or more marks a core-holding candidate.
- **Growth forecast of 2.3%** (projected five-year sales growth). This is modest, and we should say so plainly. The return case here rests on a low starting price and a steady business, not on rapid expansion.
- **Yield.** The current dividend yield is 6.12%, and the projected yield used in PAR is 2.4%. The projected yield is lower than today’s yield, so the PAR does not assume today’s payout rate holds forever.
- **Triple Play: no.** Hormel is not flagged as a Triple Play in the analyst file.

**Why today**

Hormel’s next earnings report is scheduled for December 3, 2026, and the fiscal fourth quarter is the quarter our AI review of its recent earnings calls (Q1 through Q3 2026, generated August 28, 2026, so it predates the next report) calls critical. That review describes an earnings recovery with adjusted EPS up year over year in each of those three quarters and full-year earnings guidance raised and narrowed. It also describes Foodservice growing organically for 12 consecutive quarters, a direct sales force the company treats as a competitive advantage, and a steady program of portfolio simplification (Justin’s, whole-bird turkey, Brazil). Management also showed improved cash generation and a stronger cash balance.

The same review carries real cautions. Enterprise organic sales turned negative in Q3, the full-year sales outlook was lowered, retail volumes came in weaker than management expected, and the consumer is described as strained. Freight and fuel costs are flagged as a red item, at their highest since the underlying conflict began, with no relief assumed. Both the CEO and CFO roles are also turning over, with John Ghingo as the incoming CEO and Ash Bhumbla as CFO. Those are the factors that could keep the price subdued and that a long-term student of the stock should weigh.

Two outside data points, offered neutrally: according to our data aggregator, Hormel’s Chairman, William Newlands, bought shares on the open market on October 5, 2026. The Wall Street consensus 12-month price target is $25, which is a separate horizon from our five-year PAR and is not blended with it. Recent headlines in dividend-focused coverage also include a [247wallst piece](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/28/these-high-yield-dividend-stocks-are-flashing-the-same-warning-signs-before-a-cut/) listing consumer income stocks with dividend-cut warning signs. We cannot confirm from that summary whether it names Hormel, so we treat it only as a reminder that a high current yield deserves a look at the balance sheet. Here the balance sheet ranks at 93.9 out of 100 on financial strength.

**What to study next**

How much of the lower pork input cost reaches the income statement in the coming quarters, whether retail volumes stabilize, and how the new leadership frames fiscal 2027 on the December call. A PAR of 15.0% is a return estimate with real uncertainty around it, not a promise.

This is educational research, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

## Sources

- [These High-Yield Dividend Stocks Are Flashing the Same Warning Signs Before a Cut](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/28/these-high-yield-dividend-stocks-are-flashing-the-same-warning-signs-before-a-cut/)
- [Hormel Foods Names Joe O'Connor Group Vice President, Enterprise Performance](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hormel-foods-names-joe-oconnor-group-vice-president-enterprise-performance-302917136.html)

## About In the Sweet Spot

Manifest Investing's daily stock pick: one high-quality company whose projected annual return (PAR) sits in the sweet spot above the market median (MIPAR). Each pick pairs Manifest Investing's quality percentile with its projected annual return (PAR); the sweet spot runs from MIPAR + 5 to MIPAR + 10 percentage points. Browse [every pick in the archive](/sweet-spot/archive).

_In the Sweet Spot is educational and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures reflect Manifest Investing's methodology as of the pick date._