# PAR (Projected Annual Return)

PAR (Projected Annual Return) is your expected annual return over the next 5 years, combining price appreciation and dividend yield. It's the most important ...

Canonical: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/guide/core-concepts/par

# PAR (Projected Annual Return)

PAR is your expected annual return over the next 5 years, combining price appreciation and projected dividend yield.

## Key Points
- \*\*PAR = Price Appreciation + Dividend Yield\*\* (always 5-year outlook)
- \*\*Higher PAR = Better buying opportunity\*\*
- \*\*PAR fluctuates with stock prices\*\* - creating buying/selling signals
- \*\*Compare to [MIPAR](/guide/core-concepts/mipar)\*\* to gauge relative attractiveness

## The Basics

PAR answers the fundamental question: "What return can I expect if I buy this stock today and hold it for five years?" It combines two components:

1. \*\*Price Appreciation\*\*: The annualized gain from current price to projected price in 5 years
2. \*\*Dividend Yield\*\*: Expected annual dividend payments as a percentage of current price

The projected price calculation considers current sales, sales growth forecasts, projected profit margins, outstanding shares, and historical price-to-earnings ratios. This forward-looking approach helps you make decisions based on what's likely to happen, not what already occurred.

![PAR Calculation](/images/guide/concepts/par-calculation.png)

PAR increases in two ways: company fundamentals improve (better growth or profitability expectations) or the stock price drops while fundamentals remain steady. This creates the opportunities investors seek: high-quality companies temporarily trading at attractive prices.

## On the Platform

PAR appears throughout Manifest Investing:

- \*\*Stock cards\*\*: Shows current PAR with color coding
- \*\*Watchlists\*\*: Sort by PAR to identify top opportunities
- \*\*Portfolio dashboards\*\*: Track PAR changes over time
- \*\*Sweet Spot alerts\*\*: Notifications when PAR enters the [Sweet Spot](/guide/core-concepts/sweet-spot) range

Use PAR to:
- \*\*Identify buying opportunities\*\*: Look for PAR spikes above [MIPAR](/guide/core-concepts/mipar)
- \*\*Evaluate selling decisions\*\*: Consider selling when PAR drops significantly
- \*\*Compare investments\*\*: Higher PAR generally indicates better opportunity

| PAR Range | What It Means | Action |
|-----------|---------------|--------|
| Above MIPAR+10% | Potentially unrealistic projections | Investigate; may signal risk |
| MIPAR+5% to +10% | \*\*Sweet Spot\*\* | Ideal buying range |
| MIPAR to +5% | Modest upside | Acceptable but not compelling |
| Below MIPAR | Below-market returns expected | Generally avoid |

## Learn More

- Learn about [Quality Rating](/guide/core-concepts/quality-rating) - the other essential metric
- Understand [MIPAR](/guide/core-concepts/mipar) for market context
- Explore the [Sweet Spot](/guide/core-concepts/sweet-spot) buying strategy
- Read [Purpose-Driven Investing](/articles/purpose-driven-investing) for PAR philosophy