Bull Sessions (9/5/2023)

Once upon a time… there was a paper boy in Mt. Prospect, Illinois, who was convinced by his Dad & Uncle to invest $150 in McDonald’s in 1969. If Kevin had held on, how many Big Macs could he buy today?

In this Bull Sessions episode from September 5, 2023, Mark Robertson, Ken Kavula, Kevin Gillogly, and Matt Spielman opened with nostalgic reflections on their experiences as newspaper delivery boys in the Midwest, discussing historical publications like the Cleveland Press, Detroit Free Press, and Chicago Daily News. The conversation then shifted to investment analysis, with the team reviewing market barometers using the Value Line Arithmetic Average and Manifest Investing's Median PAR (Projected Annual Return) metric. Matt Spielman provided an in-depth analysis of inflation trends, particularly core PCE data, discussing how recent monthly increases compare to historical averages and the implications for Federal Reserve policy decisions in upcoming meetings.

The speakers explored the relationship between interest rate expectations and housing market dynamics, with Spielman explaining how home builders are using mortgage buydowns as an arbitrage opportunity and theorizing about potential price moderation if Treasury rates decline in 2024. Throughout the session, the team emphasized the importance of understanding economic data beyond headline numbers and the value of patience in investment decision-making during uncertain market conditions. The discussion underscored Manifest Investing's core philosophy of analyzing fundamental data and market trends to inform long-term investment strategies.