# Bull Sessions (4/18/2023)

Happy Tax Filing Extension Day! Little did we know when we launched the dual book review of Big Money Thinks Small (Tillinghast) and Thinking In Bets (Annie ...

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Happy Tax Filing Extension Day! Little did we know when we launched the dual book review of Big Money Thinks Small (Tillinghast) and Thinking In Bets (Annie Duke) that it would lead down a path to (1) affirmation of practices and discipline and (2) foundations and benefits of investment clubs. But it did. Join Matt Spielman as we continue this book-driven discussion ... part of our series to discover and encourage better investing.

In this April 18, 2023 Bull Sessions webinar, Mark Robertson, Ken Kavula, and Matt Spielman continued their discussion of investing philosophy based on Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" and Joel Tillinghast's lessons on long-term fund management. The speakers emphasized the importance of probabilistic thinking in investment decisions, noting that certainty is impossible and acknowledging luck as a factor in outcomes. They discussed how professional communities like intelligence agencies use standardized language to quantify probability statements, a practice applicable to investment analysis. The trio examined current market conditions through the lens of the Value Line Arithmetic Average, sentiment indicators, and the Michigan Sentiment Index, which showed that despite recent media pessimism about valuations, current conditions historically present buying opportunities. They also analyzed the performance of small-cap stocks, which have lagged the market recently due to strength in mega-cap technology stocks.