Steady Hands: What Rising Oil Means for Patient Investors

The Numbers Behind the Noise

The military escalation between the U.S. and Israel vs. Iran sent oil past $100 per barrel in early March 2026. WTI crude posted its biggest weekly gain since 1983. Treasury yields climbed. The major indexes ended lower.

The human toll of these events deserves acknowledgment before we look at the numbers. But look at the numbers we must, because that is what disciplined investors do.

MIPAR, the Median Projected Annual Return across all companies we follow, jumped from 7.9% to 9.2% in a single week. That was the largest move since October 2025. The translation is straightforward: prices dropped, and projected returns rose. The market handed patient investors a better entry point than they had seen in months.

What MIPAR Is Telling Us

When we talk about MIPAR rising, we are saying that the median stock in our universe got cheaper relative to its projected future earnings. Bear markets cause MIPAR to rise as stock prices fall, making projected returns more attractive. Bull markets cause MIPAR to fall as prices rise, reducing projected returns.

At 9.2%, MIPAR is still below the Sweet Spot (MIPAR + 5% to MIPAR + 10%), which means the broad market is not yet in deep-discount territory. But the direction matters. A week earlier, we were at 7.9%. That kind of move creates pockets of opportunity for investors who are paying attention to fundamentals rather than cable news.

Kim B. said it well during a recent community discussion: "When everybody's complaining, that's when you get real. I rub my hands together and, ooh, the store is open."

The Trade-Down Effect: Dollar General as a Case Study

When energy costs spike, consumers feel it at the pump immediately. That pain ripples through spending habits in predictable ways. Discount retailers sit in a fascinating spot during these periods.

On one hand, fuel costs pinch the core customer base. On the other, trade-down behavior drives more shoppers through the door when times get tight. Families that previously split their shopping between Target and Dollar General start consolidating trips to the lower-cost option.

Dollar General (DG) is a useful example of this dynamic. The stock recovered more than 76% over the past year, yet it still trades well below its all-time highs from late 2022. That gap between recovery and prior peak is worth studying. It raises the question every disciplined investor should ask: is the turnaround story fully priced in, or is there still room to run?

We think all investors should notice companies that benefit from the very conditions that make headlines scary.

What Disciplined Investors Do

During the same week that oil was spiking and indexes were falling, members of the Manifest Investing community were buying. Intuit. Microsoft. Zoetis. Not because they were ignoring the news, but because they were reading the fundamentals.

This is the windshield-and-rear-view-mirror balance we talk about often. The rear view mirror shows oil shocks, military conflict, and inflation fears. The windshield shows quality companies with solid earnings trajectories, reasonable valuations, and the kind of financial strength that weathers downturns.

We encourage an appropriate balance of focus. Acknowledge what is behind you. But keep your brights on for what is ahead.

Turbulent markets have a way of clarifying what matters. Quality companies. Reasonable prices. Patient capital. The companies we own will get through this, and so will we.