Features - Dec 11, 2007
Manifest Top 40
by Mark Robertson, Managing Partner Page 1 of 1
View the article as a pdf file.
We introduced the MANIFEST TOP 40 in late 2005. Dashboard usage continues to grow and we'll continue to track these most widely-followed companies from subscriber dashboards. The annualized rate of return for the stocks on your collective dashboards is 9.8% versus 11.2% for the Wilshire 5000 since inception.
This is our 10th edition of the MANIFEST 40, covering the last 30 months. It's a list of the most widely-followed stocks by subscribers. We've always believed that the collective decisions made by our community of long-term investors is worth huddling over ... a place where ideas are born.
We usually try to feature a scenic vista or mountain peak with the MANIFEST 40. If you're in the retail business (or own retail stocks) the peak that we've chosen this for this edition of the 40 is pretty scenic and special. The graphic is a day-by-day profile of holiday shopping for 2002-2006. The first shaded area is Black Friday (day after Thanksgiving) and the other four are Cyber Mondays for online shoppers. Monday is the most active key punching evening of all of the days of the week. Maybe it's just me, but the peaks seem to be getting more pronounced and getting closer to Christmas. I take some solace in this - as it proves I'm not the only one waiting until December 15th or so to start my Christmas shopping!
Walgreen (WAG) continues to lock down the top spot in as the company found on the highest number of subscriber dashboards. All of the top ten remained unchanged except that Fastenal (FAST) and Medtronic (MDT) switched positions at #9 and #10.
Explore the companies making the biggest moves (up or down) and you may find an interesting situation for further study. If a company is gaining popularity and it's not on your radar screen, perhaps a visit to the MANIFEST Forum is in order to discover what the rest of the community expects from a surging stock. When you find a charger with a high rating from the CAPS All-Stars, it may be time to double down on the study efforts.
Strongest Performers
The three top performers in the MANIFEST TOP 40 since inception are FactSet Research (FDS), Danaher (DHR) and Cisco Systems (CSCO).
FDS is up 87.2% since 9/30/2005 (61.2 percentage points better than the Wilshire 5000). Danaher has gained 64% and Cisco Systems has appreciated some 55.6%.
The results of $100 positions invested in any of the Top 40 companies can be viewed at any time using our public dashboard at:
http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboard/1213
MANIFEST 40 - December 10, 2007. This listing of stocks represents the most widely-followed stocks present on dashboards at www.manifestinvesting.com at this time. Articles and discussions at Manifest Investing will be influenced by this list and more importantly, any trends or changes, as the list is presented quarterly. Figures in parentheses represent previous ranking on 9/30/2007. (*) denotes new listing.
One stock was displaced/removed during this update. Lincare Holdings (LNCR) is no longer among the Top 40.
Weakest Price Performers
The weaker performing Top 40 companies are Amgen (AMGN), Starbucks (SBUX) and Citigroup (C).
Amgen has recovered back to $63 (from $55) but has still be a heavy disappointment. Starbucks is down 36% since inclusion in the Top 40 and Citigroup is down 24% along with many of the financial sector stocks.
MANIFEST 40 "Charger" - Kohl's (KSS) The stock price for Kohl’s peaked near $80 and has recently retreated to $50+. The sales growth forecast continues to be fairly strong and profitability is among the industry leaders - as exhibited by the quality trend shown here. We welcome Kohl's back to the Manifest 40 for the holiday shopping season.
Newcomer Awards
Kohl's (KSS) is the new company on the list, entering the scene at #38 with a PAR of 24.4% and a quality rating of 93.1. This marks a return to the Top 40 for Kohl's as it was among the original companies. Our community of investors is pretty unforgiving when it comes to retailers and we'll see whether Kohl's can sustain its position on the list this time.
"Sliders"
The companies dropping the most on the list included: Knight Transportation (KNX), Linear Technology (LLTC) and Home Depot (HD).
All three of these companies are long-time favorites but patience is wearing thin as investors expect improvements in the fundamentals.
Knight dropped from #15 to #20, Linear Tech to #31 from #26 and Home Depot (a former #1) is now clinging to #5 and is tracked on fewer dashboards at this time compared to three months ago!
"Chargers"
What companies are making the strongest gains among this consensus collection? This may be indicative of strong characteristics at the companies and warrant further study. The companies making the largest advances since 9/30/2007 are: Coach (#29 to #21), Starbucks (#16 to #12) and FactSet (#35 to #33.) Coach and Starbucks are chargers for the second report in a row.
Other Notables
The highest PAR is delivered by Coach (COH) at 25.4%. Danaher (DHR) is the most "challengeable" with a PAR of 4.9%.
Collective performance is still fairly strong versus the total stock market since inception, delivering a 9.8% rate of return, trailing the Wilshire 5000 by 1.4 percentage points.
With an overall PAR of 15.4%, up from 14.4% on 9/30/2007 (and MIPAR at 10.6%), the future continues to be promising. Kohl's shoppers: Start your engines.
Page 1 of 1